Thanks to the resources provided by Pits n Pots I see that the 500 plus words I put together in support of my 2010 campaign are still there for all to see “¦ and judge this years efforts by no doubt.
I wasn’t successful last year, but as promised I’ve made good use of the spare time to put together ideas for the future, and used these as a base for my campaign this year. One thing is for sure “¦ I haven’t lost faith in the fact that there is an enthusiasm and an ability in Hanford & Trentham to bring about improvements in our community.
I have produced an election leaflet in which, as promised last year I’ve detailed my Mini Manifesto for the next four years. My targets have been researched, and are doable if I get elected.
I’ve now completed posting these leaflets “¦ sharing a few days with Terry Fellows helping with his, so that all residents in Hanford and Trentham are now fully aware that they have 2 Independent candidates, both of whom have a genuine commitment to the future wellbeing of Hanford and Trentham. Two candidates they can trust and vote for with confidence.
Time now to “Ëœgo public’ on Pits n Pots.
Attached “¦ my election leaflet & mini manifesto
I personally think Peter would make an excellent councillor and representative for Hanford and Trentham and I plan to vote for him.
Have a look at his leaflet. In another thread we debated whether to put a lot or a little information in a leaflet. I said I am inclined as a campaigner to put just a little, to be sure the key message gets across to the voter and they bother to read it but what I want as a voter is a lot. There is a contradiction there, but what I get from Peter is the sort of detail I like to see.
Last year
http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/ce/elections_team/elections-2010/summary-of-results-2010.en
as Peter says he did not win:
http://www.stoke.gov.uk/ccm/content/ce/elections_team/election-results/trentham-and-hanford-elections-results.en
But this was a general election year with a 67.4% turnout in the ward. To try to interpret what would happen just in a local election we need to compare the voters. The turnout for a local election would be about half this. The extra electorate who turn out for the general election and vote local as well tend to vote for ‘main’ parties. This means in a local it might be estimated that the main parties’ votes would be about half the general election values whilst the small parties and independents may be fairly unchanged. On that assumption the votes would have been:
Mark Wright – Conservative – 1250
Peter Hayward – Independent – 884
Lloyd Brown – Labour – 684
Alan Alcock – Liberal Democrat – 660
Phil Smith – UKIP – 496
(I’m aware this is more than half the turn out, but it’s an approximation.)
So the conservative Mark Wright would still have won by a clear margin. There is a strong conservative vote in the ward (personally I’ve never been a conservative voter and don’t intend to be this time). But it can also be noted that Mark lives in the ward and may poll higher than just any conservative. Peter Hayward, who also lives in the ward, nevertheless did well and stands a real chance this election. The effect of the referendum will reduce the independent chance to some extent but not as much as a general election would. Despite general boundary changes the Hanford and Trentham boundary is virtually identical to what it was before.
This year we have a BNP candidate who may take a few of the labour votes, but not many I would think. The libdem votes will likely go down, to independent or labour perhaps. Because of government unpopularity some tory votes may switch to ukip. Because people are so fed up with this labour council cutting and playing politics with their lives, labour voters and possibly libdems and tories as well, may just not bother to vote or could try independent.
It can be noted that there are only two candidates who live in the ward; Peter Hayward and Mark Wright. This is an important factor for consideration by many people.
Another large effect this year is that of the two conservative candidates, one is Ross Irving, who shamefully betrayed the electorate by not supporting us (he even acted against us) over Trentham High for one thing. The voters will not forget that, that’s for sure. Terry Follows supported us and has a good track record in the ward so will gain a lot of votes.
I suspect many conservative voters who still decide to turn out to vote will vote for Mark Wright and Terry Follows, if they are choosing on past track record or Mark Wright and Peter Hayward, if they would like a new local person in and like Peter’s thorough approach or are perhaps uneasy with Terry’s role on the cabinet. Of course there are plenty of people like me who prefer independents and will pick Peter Hayward and Terry Follows.
So what do I think will happen? What I want is Peter Hayward and Terry Follows. What I think is more likely is one of those two (and I really can’t decide which is more likely) plus Mark Wright.
This is of course all complete speculation on my part…